Market vs Interest Rates, Inflation & Credit

Macro 55/100 · Mixed

Dotted = market-implied expectation (next ~12 mo), not a prediction.

Why this score

Inflation30/100
CPI 4.3% YoY, rising
Interest rates60/100
Fed Funds 3.63%, -0.25 pts / 6mo
Credit spreads (HY)80/100
HY OAS 2.71%, narrowing

S&P 500 on the left axis; Interest rate (Fed Funds), Inflation (CPI YoY), the Yield curve (10y−2y) and Credit spreads (HY OAS) on the right axis in %. Use the slider to set the start year and the buttons to overlay each series. Data: yfinance + FRED.

Data via yfinance & FRED. · Privacy

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